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This Weekend's Premiership Games
By Betting Zone February 29 2008
Arsenal go into the Villa game having dropped two vital points against Birmingham last time and there is every reason to believe the same thing could happen on Saturday. I'm not saying the Gunners have gone off the boil - draws against AC Milan and Birmingham since their FA Cup drubbing at Manchester United hardly constitutes a crisis, but they are possibly a little below their peak.
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Arsenal v Aston Villa

Arsenal go into this game having dropped two vital points against Birmingham last time and there is every reason to believe the same thing could happen on Saturday. I'm not saying the Gunners have gone off the boil - draws against AC Milan and Birmingham since their FA Cup drubbing at Manchester United hardly constitutes a crisis, but they are possibly a little below their peak. Aston Villa on the other hand are a team full of confidence and very much in contention for a Champions League place. Their away record this season is excellent - they have lost just two on the road and if you saw them at Reading last week it is easy to see why. They have so much pace on the break they worry teams with their counter-attacking football. Ashley Young and Gabriel Agbonlahor have considerable speed and would be an asset to any Premier League squad. Arsenal away represents a very different test to Reading away but I still expect Villa to hold their own - after all they have already drawn 4-4 at Chelsea and 2-2 at Liverpool this season. Those were two high-scoring games and we could be in for another one here. Eight of Villa's last 10 games have produced over 2.5 goals, while it's seven in the last 10 for Arsenal. When the two last met it was 2-1 and I reckon we can expect more goals on Saturday. There is plenty of 10/11 available about over 2.5 goals and that is a price that should be snapped up.

Verdict: Arsenal 2 Aston Villa 2 (BL)

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Birmingham v Tottenham

This could be an emotional one at St Andrews. The Blues have rallied around under-fire defender Martin Taylor with his team-mates admitting that there is a new togetherness in the squad following a week of intense media scrutiny. It will be up to Alex McLeish to make sure everything is channelled in a positive direction as they try and make some progress in the right direction up the table. Spurs are on an obvious high after victory in the Carling Cup final and are even money to follow up with three points. Will they be able to maintain that momentum or will there be a slight feeling of letdown after last weekend's euphoria? Juande Ramos will be keen to keep the intensity of his players up and they could respond with the decent football they are capable of now that a European campaign is assured for next season. They certainly possess more quality than the hosts in the vital areas and can just edge it - but Brum are not going to be a pushover and those taking the evens about Spurs could be made to sweat.

Verdict: Birmingham 1 Tottenham 2 (DJ)

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Derby v Sunderland

It took a last-minute Anthony Stokes goal to give Sunderland a narrow 1-0 victory in the reverse fixture and they've now beaten Derby four times on the trot. However, the stats don't look good for either team going into this one. Derby have taken just three points in 12 Premier League games since that defeat at the Stadium of Light. And while Sunderland have banked 13pts in that same time, they haven't won a single one of them on the road. That should be enough to scream no bet and prices of 23/10 Derby, 13/10 Sunderland do little to overturn that initial assumption. Digging down deeper, Sunderland have scored just nine goals in 14 road trips (12 lost, two drawn) while Derby have found the net just eight times at home (one win, three draws, nine defeats). That kills off interest in the draw or goalscorer markets so the bottom line is simple. Ignore this game and move on.

Verdict: Derby 1 Sunderland 1 (DT)

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Fulham v Manchester United

No doubt where the mis-match of the day can be found as 4/11 chances United head for Craven Cottage to take on a side that has picked up just three points in the league since the turn of the year. It was hard for Roy Hodgson to criticise his side's performance against West Ham but the fact they got nothing from it suggests this is not going to be their season. They find themselves with just 19 points and still some four from safety. United are beating teams for fun at the moment. They certainly did not need any help from a feeble Newcastle last weekend but 5-1 barely reflects their domination in the match to be fair. Just look at their last goal. Wayne Rooney and Louis Saha still managed to create and score with ridiculous ease despite being surrounded by black and white shirts - the home defeat to City in the Manchester derby seems to have spurred them on to an even more ominous level of performance for their rivals. The Cottagers have had their moments in this fixture in the past but the gulf in class between the pair looks far too great at the moment.

Verdict: Fulham 0 Manchester United 3 (DJ)

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Manchester City v Wigan

The layers are expecting City to get their impressive home record back on track after the wheels came off in no uncertain terms against Everton on Monday night. Sven's side were awful, looking very shaky at the back and creating little in the way of goal threats with their evening sinking further into the mire as Martin Petrov was sent off deep into added time. Once again Eriksson's lack of a tactical 'Plan B' when his side were 2-0 down was exposed and his side never for one instance looked like getting back into the game. They are as short as 4/7 to prove that was a blip and it represents rotten value even against a side that has won just once away from the JJB Stadium - that was at Derby. Two wins from their last three starts have eased the Latics' relegation worries for the time being and they look capable of doing enough on the run-in under Steve Bruce to maintain their top-flight status. You get the feeling they could frustrate the hosts and a small interest on them with a goal start on the handicap could pay dividends.

Verdict: Manchester City 1 Wigan 1 (DJ)

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Middlesbrough v Reading

With no wins, just three draws and 10 defeats away from home, Reading deserve to be opposed on the road at present but what sort of odds are the bookies willing to dangle on Boro. The answer is 4/5 which looks good given Reading's record but not so impressive when you consider that Gareth Southgate's men have won just four of their 13 home games in the Premier League. However, Boro's last six at the Riverside have produced three wins and a draw against Liverpool while Reading have lost their last eight top flight games (four at home and four away). However, Boro couldn't put away Championship side Sheffield United inside 90 minutes in Wednesday night's FA Cup replay and there's that nagging feeling that Reading are due to get something. Steve Coppell's men played well without reward at high-flying Everton and if they can find a goal here it might well be enough to earn them a point.

Verdict: Middlesbrough 1 Reading 1 (DT)

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Newcastle v Blackburn

Oh dear. They always reckon you should never go back and King Kev must be wondering what he has let himself in for as the size of the task is becoming apparent at the Toon. Okay, he won't have rings run around him every week by Manchester United but his side's insipid efforts last weekend and at Aston Villa must have them glancing nervously over their shoulders towards the drop zone. This week's visitors bounced back to form themselves with a 4-1 win over a similarly struggling Bolton at Ewood and boss Mark Hughes has challenged his players to re-ignite their push for a European place. Striker Benni McCarthy will have gained a much-needed boost with his double - be it from the penalty spot - and picking up three points at teams in turmoil will be key to how high up the ladder Rovers can go in the closing weeks of the season. Back-to-back wins in the league at St James' Park suggests they have nothing to fear and 9/5 looks too big to complete the hat-trick.

Verdict: Newcastle 0 Blackburn 2 (DJ)

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West Ham v Chelsea

The press have got bored with Liverpool and Rafa Benitez for the time being so it's time to dig the boot into Chelsea and Avram Grant. And they're falling over themselves to stir the pot after the Blues lost the Carling Cup final and Dutch coach Henk ten Cate admitted he had an 'F-word' row with skipper John Terry. But if West Ham are to cash in on any splits in the Chelsea camp they have a lot of recent history to overcome. The Stamford Bridge men have won the last five Premier League fixtures between the pair and have won the last two Upton Park encounters 4-1 and 3-1. Chelsea have the sort of characters inthe team who will be desperate to bounce back from the loss to Spurs and they have a proven record of responding in the right manner. Chelsea's most heartbreaking losses in the last three seasons have all been to Liverpool - twice in the Champions League and once in the FA Cup - and their results after those crushing disappointments were a 2-0 win at Bolton, a 3-0 home win over Manchester United and a 1-1 draw at Arsenal. With that in mind, the 4/1 about a West Ham win starts to lose its shine. However, the Hammers do deserve respect and the 4/5 about a Chelsea win is definitely a no-goer. The visitors have thrown in more than one iffy performance in recent times but what they remain is a team that are hard to beat (Spurs needed extra-time remember). All in all the draw looks the best option here.

Verdict: West Ham 1 Chelsea 1 (DT)

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By Bettingzone.co.uk
Used with permission.

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